Barcelona Metropolis

The population pyramid of the metropolitan area of Barcelona is not inverted, and the ageing population does not lead us to collapse, as is often believed. Over the past decades, there have been peaks of major demographic vitality, but also birth rate crises closely tied to economic recessions. The most numerous generation, boomers, is around 45 years old.

An ageing territory?

Almost five million inhabitants call the metropolitan region of Barcelona home. Its dynamics defy a strictly linear narrative; instead, they unfold cyclically. Contrary to the notion of an inverted pyramid (see Figure 1), suggesting that ageing inevitably leads to decline, this is not the case. However, numerous anomalies warrant analysis from a demographic perspective to delve into the heart of the matter. Consequently, we can see fluctuating patterns, marked by peaks that indicate significant demographic vitality, and interspersed with valleys of population scarcity. We must bear in mind that the pyramid offers insights accumulated over more than a century of experience, contributing depth to our understanding!

Are we experiencing growth or decline?

Population growth in the metropolitan area during the last two decades of the 20th century was virtually non-existent, a result of a convergence of factors, including declining birth rates, relatively stable mortality (natural or vegetative growth) and a balanced migratory pattern – where the number of people leaving the metropolitan area roughly equalled those arriving (see Figure 2). 
In essence, demographic dynamics exhibited sluggishness during the turn of the century, marked by an economic crisis that the Barcelona Olympic Games failed to mitigate. Suddenly, coinciding with the dawn of the new century, between a remarkable economic upturn since 2000 and the onset of the “Great Recession” in 2009, significant demographic growth emerged. This was the result of a rise in birth rates, notably propelled by a markedly positive migratory balance: more births were taking place, and the influx of people far exceeded those departing. Here, we find a clue to the factors influencing demographic evolution – a pace shaped by the economic circumstances of each period.

Indeed, as the 20th century drew to a close, natural growth played a pivotal role in warding off five-year spans of migratory decline (1981-85 and 1991-95). However, in the 21st century, migration has taken centre stage, showing a remarkable surge from 2000 to 2008 and a resurgence between 2014 and 2019 that was abruptly halted by the pandemic.

At present, 62% of the metropolitan area’s population was born in Catalonia, while 22% hails from outside of Spain, and 17% from the rest of Spain. The average age of the latter group is 67 years, indicating their arrival in the metropolitan region of Barcelona quite some time ago. In contrast, the average age of the other two groups is 39 years.

Are we poised for growth or decline? Right now, the outlook hinges on the region’s migratory balance, given that the rate of natural growth (births minus deaths) stands at zero, though not in the negative.

Is there a birth rate crisis?

I want to make it clear that we are not shirking responsibility. Our focus is squarely on addressing the birth rate crisis in the metropolitan area, employing specific indicators to measure this phenomenon (see Figure 3). This includes assessing the fertility rate (number of children per woman), tracing its timeline through the average age of motherhood, and, more precisely, understanding the age at which a woman becomes a mother for the first time. It’s crucial not to overlook the fact that provisional figures for 2022 suggests the metropolitan area has hit a nadir in fertility, with 1.1 children per woman – a figure similar to that of 1995.

This birth rate crisis unfolds within a broader timeframe, beginning in the mid-1970s and navigating through noteworthy fluctuations worth examining. During that period, the fertility rate stood at nearly three children per woman, marking the youngest timeline on record: 25.5 years for the first pregnancy. In response to the economic downturn triggered by escalating oil prices and a surge in unemployment rates, significantly impacting an industrially concentrated region like the metropolitan area of Barcelona, fertility indicators witnessed a decline. In the early 1980s, they dwindled to 1.7 children per woman, with an average age of 28.1 years, and by the mid-nineties, they plummeted to slightly over 1 child per woman, with an average age of over 30.

To establish benchmarks for comparing these values, and recognising that children are usually born to couples, the population replacement level is set at 2.1 children per woman. It’s crucial to highlight that female fertility starts to decline exponentially after the age of 30.

The economic (and birth rate) crisis lasted until the close of the 20th century. However, from this point onward, there was a resurgence in the fertility rate, peaking at 1.5 children per woman in 2008. Simultaneously, the age at which women became mothers stabilised, holding consistently at 30 years for the firstborn and 31 for general motherhood.

It must be made clear that the upward trend was disrupted with the onset of the last major economic recession in late 2008, and there has been no cultural or demographic shift in the metropolitan area. Furthermore, the decline in fertility has been accompanied by an unprecedented delay in the timeline: the average age of motherhood has surpassed 33 years.

What significant differences exist between the crisis period of 1981-1995 and the ongoing one that began in 2009, with indications suggesting it has not yet concluded? First and foremost, we observe changing institutional patterns of fertility: the proportion of children born to married couples, which was almost 90% in 1995, fell to 65% at the peak of the recovery in 2008 and currently stands at 50%. This is because the other half is born outside of marriage, though not outside of a committed partnership.

However, beyond these cultural shifts, it is worth mentioning the current economic outlook. Towards the end of the year 2000, the economic recovery was remarkable, accompanied by an unprecedented rise in the population of non-Spanish nationals due to improvements in the job market. However, current expectations for a recurrence of such an exceptional situation are low. All signs point to challenging times for natality, particularly in the short to medium term, as European incentives and the extraordinary job protection measures introduced during the pandemic (such as temporary layoff schemes, ERTE) are withdrawn.

To end on a positive note, I am pleased to share the projections made by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) concerning the number of births in the province of Barcelona, looking ahead to the year 2036. Although estimates for 2022 indicate a level similar to the mid-1990s (just over 40,000 births), the INE foresees a gradual increase from 2023 onwards, reaching 55,000 births by the end of the projected period.